IBM just made its tech predictions for 2015. Big Blue’s teasing us with talk about its holographic mobile phone. Its battery will recharge on fairy dust. Back in 2006, IBM predicted instant vocal translation, but we’re still a long way off having this feature in our daily life.
On January 19, 2011 in Montreal, Deloitte will be back with its technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) predictions. What I like about this company ‚Äî besides that it’s an excellent customer ‚Äî is that they manage to guess every year which technologies will dominate in the following 12 months. They have a success rate over 70%. I can tell you, it’s much more difficult than to make predictions for periods from 5 to 20 years.
The same kind of paradox arises with startups. On the one side, those who predict a radical change in consumer habits in the short term can catch the imagination of venture capitalists who perk up and invest millions all at once in marketing so that the service reaches a critical mass to generate potential profitability.
To develop my social TV startup, Seevibes, I admit being part of the other, more conservative camp that begins by seducing the market this year to have the means to revolutionize it within three years. This pragmatic approach is less sexy, but as with Deloitte’s TMT predictions, I prefer basing my work on more credible results.
My prediction for 2011: startups must be more Cash-Cash than Bling-Bling. Let’s get back together in a year and see who was right.